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South Korea’s exports to the U.S. could drop by more than 10 percent if the second Trump administration imposes universal tariffs, according to a new report.

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) published its economy and industry outlook report for 2025 on Monday, which forecasted a potential 8.4 percent ($5.5 billion) decline in exports to the United States compared to the 2021 to 2023 average if a 10 percent tariff is introduced. Exports could fall by up to 14 percent if tariffs are raised to 20 percent, the report added.

Converted into value-added terms, the export reductions could lower Korea’s annual economic growth rate by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. The automotive sector would bear the brunt, accounting for over 16.2 percent of the total decline in value-added across industries.

Conversely, some sectors are expected to benefit from a second Trump presidency, including shipbuilding, general machinery, and petrochemicals. Shipbuilding, in particular, stands to gain from an expansion in the U.S. naval maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market.